I don't follow SPX all that closely, but off the top of my head I'd just point out that the boyz have a lot of different ways to game the system. One of their favorites is inter-index arbitrage. For example, for several weeks now the mo-mo has been moving back and forth between the COMP and the NDX. Every time it has moved to the COMP people all over start yelling that the crap is running and therefore the top must be near. And then the shorts -- conditioned by three years of Ursa Major -- start loading up on shorts again, thus adding more fuel for the next burst upward.
All of this is JMDO and, for that matter, a theory which just began to coalesce as I was typing it, so take it with some salt...
(:
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