Replies to post #18406 on Plug Power Inc (PLUG)

[canadajim]

Does the price really drop when Andy speaks?

The track record on conference calls vs. share price over the past year and a bit (stock price resurrection in Dec-13 to present) :

 
 Activity    Day Before     Day After    %Change     Comment 
   Date      PPS (Close)   PPS (Close)        
 ==========|============|=============|===========|============= 
  12/04/13 |       0.79 |        1.81 |  +129%    |Business update call 
  02/10/14 |       3.10 |        3.51 |  + 13%    |PR for new 1500 GenDrive multisite/year order to unnamed company 
  02/26/14 |       3.90 |        4.37 |  + 12%    |PR IDing Walmart, 1,738 GenDrive + GenFuel + GenCare  
  03/13/14 |       6.80 |        6.71 |  -  1%    |Q4 2013 results release after peaking at 11.72 on 03/11/14 
  04/21/14 |       7.32 |        6.70 |  -  8%    |Business update call 
  05/14/14 |       4.09 |        4.03 |  -  1%    |Q1 2014 results  
  08/14/14 |       5.86 |        5.92 |  +  1%    |Q2 2014 results with 0.02/share net and -0.04/share adj income 
  11/12/14 |       5.08 |        4.06 |  - 20%    |Q3 2014 results 
  01/28/15 |       3.18 |        2.75 |  - 14%    |Business update call 
 

Leaving out the two press releases regarding the order from Walmart (ie. conference calls only) we have 2 increases, 5 decreases, a mean change of +12.3%, and a median of -1%. Those are the statistics, I'll leave the decision on the 'Andy Effect' up to you.

It goes without saying that the most important factor in whether a press release results in a gain or loss is the perception of delivery to the level of expectation.

In December 2013 no one (outside Plug Power) would have predicted that from the 14-Nov-2013 Q3 2013 results release when Plug announced $26M bookings 2013 YTD and no forward guidance, to the 04-Dec-2013 business update call when there are predictions of $70M in sales in 2014 of which 70% would be booked by 31-Dec-2013.

Likewise after several quarters of reassuring us of a $75M revenue target in 2014 who would have thought that Andy would have found religion during this past January's business update call, issued a most bizarre mea culpa regarding past performance and missing previously issued guidance, and in the end leave shareholders hanging by omitting any concrete number for Q4/Annual revenue guidance?

When it comes to expectations for the coming quarterly results call I think the recent share price performance says it best - schizophrenic - because that's the nature of the guidance we are being given.