Replies to post #131153 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Belek]

I guess its true, Miracles do happen......I think everybody is in shock and awe that this keeps going up and up and up on such low volume........
its the stairway to heaven Man!!!

[USDollar]

dry volume above resistance, or above resistance that matters, is absolutely of no consequence, it's normal.
I mean think about it, how many people are that good or that lucky to ride it in that area? NOT MANY. And since they didn't sell, they won't now. Meanwhile, others on sidelines feel bad missing out, so they slowly slowly will step in.

This makes a low volume.

The high volume is when a lot of money or people rush in. This is not the case above a resistance with the exception (!!!) when there are a lot and I mean A LOT OF SHORTS right there.

Going above resistance and no volume it means shorts are either too small to matter/see, or none. This is bullish.

Problem with this (bullish) picture/scenario is the following:
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN INDEX NOT A STOCK !

For a stock the above explanation is fine 100%.
For an index on the other hand it shows trouble as index represent a lot.
In a nutshell an index running rampant spells the opposite of what the pundits want us to believe, it spells the demon of inflation, THE inflation, MONSTER INFLATION that is, which is great in short term forcing people to buy stuff as the money is dirt, thus pushing economy in ST, but like a powerful drug will kill the host (economy), and once started is very hard to stop (just like drugs).

So for stocks here and there is fine and dandy, normal stuff, but for index is toxic.

A great example of this story is Turkey stock market when it went to the sky, but inflationary, and in real terms they were normal to pitiful gains while the inflation was insane.
What's to gain if the stock market triples and everything else (prices) triples as well?!! So in one hand you have 300% gains but your dollar devalued by -300%, so it's a wash. And a wash would be nice scenario, it goes worse than that.

The gains are only when they are real, when you gain money and prices are the same, that will make you and the country wealthy.

My take and hope is that they will at least try to keep it under control and won't let this inflation demon out. On that premises alone I extrapolated their own inflationary agenda and came up with my valuation thinking/hoping they will keep sticking with it. So while they have the money printing on their side, on that above valuation metric they MUST back down and selloff the market or correct if you will, just to maintain orderly inflation (which is already too high anyway mind you).