Well, I think they are most likely working on an exclusive deal - this being the most logical & simple way to initially get a manufacturing deal done. A complex multi-party negotiation - well you gotta think that is less likely.
Less sure on the "large upfront payment" - this seems less likely to me and obviously depends on factors we don't know - like how interested and rich our potential partners are.
And, of course, also reasonable to expect a price surge if a deal is announced - though most of us know how fickle markets can be at times!
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