Replies to post #186418 on Biotech Values

[ariadndndough]

Mcbio. Kpti from mike king. Bull/bear

We reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $57 price target on the shares of Karyopharm; sell-off due to misplaced competitive, as well as other, concerns. On Friday, the shares of KPTI hit their lowest level since June 12, 2014 despite the BTK’s +2.26% performance. The shares have significantly underperformed both the BTK and the NBI year-to-date, having lost 28.8% vs. the BTK’s +5.34% and the NBI’s +4.64% return. In speaking with investors, as well as members of the KPTI management team, we believe we have uncovered a number of misplaced concerns regarding the company’s competitive and clinical development landscapes. We would use the current weakness to accumulate the shares. Our $57 price target is based on our DCF, CAGR, and SOTP methodologies.
Will CAR T cell therapy wipe out the competition in DLBCL? Some investors expressed their concern to us that CAR T cell therapy in general, and that practiced by KITE Pharma (KITE, NC) in particular, could present a competitive threat to KPTI’s selinexor. KITE has stated its intention to commence registration-directed studies during 1H15, with data read-out expected in 1H16, and FDA filing shortly thereafter. Recall also that KPTI began the SADAL study, a registration-directed, Phase II trial in patients with DLBCL with greater than three prior therapies, during 4Q14. KPTI is also undertaking the SIRRT study in relapsed/refractory Richter’s syndrome, also started during 4Q14. Richter’s syndrome is a transformed version of CLL that behaves like an aggressive lymphoma upon transformation. While direct comparisons are difficult, both KITE and KPTI have enrolled patients with DLBCL who have received multiple prior therapies. KPTI has reported a greater number in its studies (n=32) as compared to KITE (n=17). In addition, collaborators led by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) presented data from nine patients at ASH 2014. All patients in these three studies were heavily pre-treated, although KPTI provides more detail regarding its prior therapies and genetic characterization of the disease (KITE does not provide much detail, making comparisons difficult). As can be seen in Figures 1 and 2, both regimens produce complete response rates.
We reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $57 price target on the shares of Karyopharm; sell-off due to misplaced competitive, as well as other, concerns. On Friday, the shares of KPTI hit their lowest level since June 12, 2014 despite the BTK’s +2.26% performance. The shares have significantly underperformed both the BTK and the NBI year-to-date, having lost 28.8% vs. the BTK’s +5.34% and the NBI’s +4.64% return. In speaking with investors, as well as members of the KPTI management team, we believe we have uncovered a number of misplaced concerns regarding the company’s competitive and clinical development landscapes. We would use the current weakness to accumulate the shares. Our $57 price target is based on our DCF, CAGR, and SOTP methodologies.
Will CAR T cell therapy wipe out the competition in DLBCL? Some investors expressed their concern to us that CAR T cell therapy in general, and that practiced by KITE Pharma (KITE, NC) in particular, could present a competitive threat to KPTI’s selinexor. KITE has stated its intention to commence registration-directed studies during 1H15, with data read-out expected in 1H16, and FDA filing shortly thereafter. Recall also that KPTI began the SADAL study, a registration-directed, Phase II trial in patients with DLBCL with greater than three prior therapies, during 4Q14. KPTI is also undertaking the SIRRT study in relapsed/refractory Richter’s syndrome, also started during 4Q14. Richter’s syndrome is a transformed version of CLL that behaves like an aggressive lymphoma upon transformation. While direct comparisons are difficult, both KITE and KPTI have enrolled patients with DLBCL who have received multiple prior therapies. KPTI has reported a greater number in its studies (n=32) as compared to KITE (n=17). In addition, collaborators led by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) presented data from nine patients at ASH 2014. All patients in these three studies were heavily pre-treated, although KPTI provides more detail regarding its prior therapies and genetic characterization of the disease (KITE does not provide much detail, making comparisons difficult). As can be seen in Figures 1 and 2, both regimens produce complete response rates.