I think the mirage of "potential big return" upon generic GA launch is wearing thin as Teva has played their delaying games well. I had an order to sell a small amount of Feb 12 puts above the market and it triggered when the stock spiked down. I closed it out for a small profit 15 minutes ago. I wished I had the foresight to sell the Jan $12 covered calls instead of the $13 a few weeks ago. IMO this will remain range bound until the prospect for launch is a lot more certain than it is now. There is little reason for traders to buy near top of recent range with September date as the most likely launch time. My guess is that there is high probability of testing the low end of the range between now and September. Time also allows TEVA to switch prescriptions over to 40 mg at a rate of about 1.5% per month. A shrinking pie plus increased likelihood of multiple generic GA players also make it harder to value the generic 20 mg GA business. I hate to sound negative but that's just the way I see it - a frustrated long that's considering closing position.
BP, Good observation. Being vacated and remanded the case is essentially new, with a slap to now retired judge Barbara Jones (the original judge). But with the patent clock expiring daily until sept 15. The only reason IMO to retry is if NVS is thinking of launching at risk as the case won't be concluded (or subsequent appeals) prior to patent expiry so it would be a damages case. It still comes back to the all important FDA approval which now doesn't require 24 hour court notice, or a possible tentative approval upon patent expiration. Continued high stakes drama with MNTA...
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