Replies to post #87829 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[slcimmuno]

Brilacidin Valuation

in four words: It is a lot... e.g., if you take what Merck paid for Cubist ($8.4 bn) as a barometer. Others like BioH have commented on the possible multiples... from a few billion to tens of billions, per multiple indications. Brilacidin stands a good chance of hitting the ground running given the strong results against Daptomycin, which brought in $257m in Q3 (~$1bn annually). again, all depends obv on approval (odds look good) and then market uptake (see Cubist tables below), but it seems we've got a winner in the making. Leo et al didn't realize its potential at first.

Cellceutix See Increased Valuation Potential for Its Novel Antibiotic Brilacidin
http://cellceutix.com/cellceutix-sees-increased-valuation-potential-for-its-novel-antibiotic-brilacidin/#sthash.9lozKFWQ.dpbs

“This sheds a whole new light on Brilacidin for people that weren’t aware of the compelling power of the defensin-mimetic platform. Following many discussions, we believe that we are addressing market sizes in the billions of dollars annually given the expansiveness of indications that Brilacidin could potentially provide a substantial benefit over approved drugs today. If Brilacidin is clinically proven to be efficacious as we believe it is, we would expect to attain a significant share of those markets.”

An ED doc friend of mine is sold on it. Thinks docs will adopt early and prescribe away.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109786824

Also see this earlier post on Valuation of Antibacterial Products (be forewarned: it's a long read)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109638519
http://aspe.hhs.gov/sp/reports/2014/antibacterials/rpt_antibacterials.cfm#_Toc382830323 (study itself)

Table 11: Annual Total Net Revenues for CUBICIN from Launch (2003) to 2012
Year Total Net Revenues Year-to-Year % Change
2003 $3.7 0%
2004 $68.1 1741%
2005 $120.6 77%
2006 $194.7 61%
2007 $294.6 51%
2008 $433.6 47%
2009 $562.1 30%
2010 $636.4 13%
2011 $754.0 18%
2012 [a] $915.0 21%
Source: Cubist, 2013
[a] The figure is the midpoint of the reported range of $900 to $930 million.

Table 12: Expected Market Share Estimates over Time for a New Antibacterial Drug
Year Market Share Product Launch Success Probability [a] Expected Market Share
Lower Bound Upper Bound
1 (Launch) 0.05% 0.11% 60% 0.07%
2 0.87% 1.91% 1.29%
3 1.57% 3.47% 2.33%
4 2.57% 5.68% 3.81%
5 3.92% 8.64% 5.81%
6 5.79% 12.77% 8.58%
7 7.52% 16.59% 11.15%
8 8.52% 18.80% 12.63%
9 10.10% 22.30% 14.98%
10 12.27% 27.08% 18.19%
[a] See Section 3.2.12 for further discussion on the basis for this parameter
The expected market share is computed as: (Lower Bound % × [1 – 60%]) + (Upper Bound % × 60%)