ATVI would not make a play for WDDD at this point... if it failed, it would reflect poorly on ATVI and add fuel to the fire of their guilt in this matter.
After Markman comes out and WDDD's case shows multiple infringements, the stock will go up 300% to 600% (my expectation).
This will cause many to dump as most retail investors are more than happy with a double and won't believe their luck if they book a quintuple bagger+. At this point, ATVI could start to accumulate shares with relative ease. Let's say they get 35 Million shares(or approx 1/3 of the float controlled through multiple accounts below 5% each to avoid having to disclose their postition) they now enjoy a risk mitigation of a 35% rebate on any award. I doubt they will get much more than that as there are some large shareholders here that are expecting a $10+/share price which will make it difficult to shake them out for less (I am one of these shareholders).
Now with a 35% reduction in costs, they let WDDD go after others who have infringed and ATVI reduces it's burden to less than Zero and actually books a tax loss (which it wants as it is a REV machine) on it's core business and doesn't have to record a profit on it's WDDD investment for possibly several years...
And should WDDD not be successful, well, then they didn't lose anything...
I believe WDDD will be successful and I think the shares get to $1/share in the short run after the Markman results come out. I also believe ATVI will take a position not too long after and then settle (they have a history of settling). After all that, a proven Markman, a large co settling, WDDD's stock rises all that much more and ATVI gets their court loss back and watches other infringing companies pay... which they may not be able to digest as easily... afterall, it's about cashflow.
Smart infringing companies should also be watching this stock and the Markman... they could be well served to take positions to mitigate their situations as well... which I believe will happen and that is why I see this stock going to $1 in the short run.
I also think that is why Hudson sued WDDD... they want as many shares as they can get before this gets heated up. I don't think they will win but they did tip their hand and that's why I bought more.
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