Replies to post #19900 on Titan Medical Inc (TMDIF)

[jetuomi]

I believe I'm looking at my email summary from last conversation stating it was inclusive. Look below for my own DD results..

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Starting Cash: 37.2MM Q3

Existing Spend Plan:
7.2 spent by end of Q1
20.4 for rest of 2015
Warrant liability impact on cash?
Total approx $28MM

Current Spend Plan:
11 spent by end of Q1 (3.8MM more that before)
17 spent by Q4 (3.4 less than before)
10MM spent by Q2 2016
6 MM to production (2017) - this seems low?
Total approx $44MM

Result: Short by 6MM or more by around Q2 2016?

Conclusion:
Funding required, either via another round or via warrants. Their strategy should be locked by end of Q42015 or early Q1 2016 to limit financing and dilution risk. Therefore if they go warrant route, they should have the stock above $2.50 by end of Q4, 2015. This is going to be my new outlook, and aligns nicely to when the prototypes are being used, and they become a "Clinical stage company from a development stage company". I looked at other startups and when they goto clinical study stage, they usually get a nice bump in the PPS.

Scour the Q4 filing and see if anything has changed. My gut tells me that $11MM hasn't been fully spent Q4 2014/Q1 2015 as planned, and that given $1.1MM in warrants were exercised since Sept30th, the cash burn rate is likely nowhere near as high.