Replies to post #186066 on Biotech Values

[masterlongevity]

$ICPT. I agree that some good results are baked in but think the initial indication could bring in real revenue, and the NASH indication is massive. If they hit on NASH, $3B is nothing. Compare that to the many start-ups now valued over $1.5B, with many 4+ yrs from any solid revenue, and small indications in clinic

[GrthzGd]

I was astonished at how much cash they will be burning this year.

Probably not unreasonable given the following plans just for their drug OCA:

* NDA/MAA filing for PBC in 1H 2015
* Initiate P3, etc. for NASH in 1H 2015
* Start P2 for Biliary Atresia in 2H 2015, and
* Start P1 for Fibrosis by YE 2015

-JPM Slide No. 25.

On the bright side of the $3.3B valuation, raising another $200M or so won't cause much dilution of existing SHs.

So, now that ICPT is back on my radar, I'm mulling buying back in.... :-|