Replies to post #44448 on lowtrade

[trader guy]

Take it from an old roughneck, oil is done for awhile. The Saudis are calling the shots, and with huge cash reserves, they can afford to drive the price far, far lower than it is now. It may not bottom until $20, maybe lower. As for the banks, get ready for another bailout or maybe even bailins. Why do you think Citi wanted (and Got) the derivatives push out portion of Dodd-Frank eliminated? They know what's coming. The $200B in junk debt they sold to the Shale drillers/producers is already seeing defaults. Most shale oil is not profitable below about $60. Did the banks bundle and sell the junk debt into CDOs like with the subprime mortgages? Nobody is saying but it wouldn't surprise me a bit.

[Jaxon2010]

Hey Neb,

Don't know if it makes any difference but most US fracking is financed by junk bonds. For most of these companies $55 per barrel is the lowest break even price. Permit applications are down. Lay offs are rising and wells are being capped.

Not looking good because I agree with you on the prices.

GLTY bud!

[trader guy]

Something I should have mentioned in my previous post but didn't is that DWTI and UWTI are ETNs not ETFs. The N stands for notes and notes are debt. In this case I am going to assume most that of the debt in these 2 is junk bond debt. Look for a forward split soon in DWTI and a reverse split in UWTI could happen at any time right out of the blue.

[lowtrade]

All I can say is nothing goes down or up forever. And the oil market has been the sovereign banks & high roller's speculation playground for decades.

Yep; greed never changes it's face. Manipulation will always: F the people, grab the gains.

My opinion, as always; Trade after, not before. Don't call a bottom, till 1st resistance is broken. Basic, simple & clean!!!