Replies to post #58245 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[biotech_researcher]

I posted the information from JPM on the modeled $2.11 earnings in 2019. Do you still really think I'm short after doing that? Also, first revenue for '113 is shown in 2016 ($30-$40 million), so it will be 2017 before it ramps. I've been pounding the table on 2016 as the year, not 2015 like so many here, so I expect this information will set the record straight.

JP Morgan is completely nutso on the revenue estimate. He must have visiting Colorado:

"Key Product Sales... JPMe vs. consensus: We project 2015 Iclusig WW revenues of $186M, which is above consensus of $133M.
Balance Sheet: ARIA ended 3Q with $274M in cash after raising $177M in a convertible senior note offering in 2Q. ARIA now expects cash at YE14 will be $250-$255M (vs. $230-235M prvsly), sufficient to fund operations into ~2H16. "

This means Ariad will dilute in late 2015, which will limit any upside this year. That is why $6-$8 price targets for many moons.. We need to send Ariad's 21 Vice Presidents cigars for a job well done.

[LexTrader]

Jess, I don't really trust any earning est. more than 2 years out. On these bios., it's like telling a salesman who works on commissions only, that he will make so much money in 3-4 years. Those numbers could swing wildly one way or the other.
I mean, look at those who said ARIA would have to dilute soon last fall. Then ARIA comes up with multi millions, making deals and agreements. Who knew that was coming?
Not BiP
Not 2demoon
So my focus is on ARIA direction, progress, and potential suitors.