Replies to post #38978 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[BowlerBob]

In the prior post, I stated that Rule #3 was very important to me. This is because I am more "comfortable" getting entirely out of a position than "holding on" during the down trend. But when it comes time to Sell, my methods require me to hold on until "after" the ("a") peak -- so I often watch Long-Term Moving Averages for Exit points (and have recently been using the "Reverse Ocroft Method", as well).

This Rule #3 (and the last paragraph in Rule #10) have caused me to think in terms of obeying the AIM signals to Sell along the way, and then, close the position with the other signals.

What I mean is, I don't really have a problem with "getting out" with less than the "maximum profit", or "leaving money on the table". If the Fed wasn't doing "ZIRP", I would be quite content with the "normal" interest rate on CDs and not even think about the Stock Market for the major portion of my life savings.

So, I am going to go back through my position's histories and simulate obeying those Sell signals, to see how "drastically" this idea would have affected my results. Would they still have met my "true goals", and just reduced my "greed goals"? Am I, after all, one of the "greedy"?

Regards,

Bob

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks Bob, I liked this statement..................

These errors are revealed by the forthcoming correction.

[JDerb]

Hi Bob..

Thanks for sharing and not a bad time of the year to review and/or revise the various pieces of our 'business plans.'

I came across one that resonated for me by Charles Rotlbut, who is the editor of AAII:

"When things are going your way, it’s easy to think you’re good at investing. When things aren’t going well, it’s very tempting to change strategies. In between is the reality that the long term lasts beyond the period of time our emotions are willing to consider. Strategies with good long-term performance will falter from time to time. Risky strategies and those with subpar returns will look great when conditions are favorable to them. The key is to avoid being lulled by the events of today and stay laser-focused on the longer term. It’s not always easy to do so, but it is vital to your success as an investor." - Charles Rotlbut

Take care and thanks for your interesting and enlightening contributions to this board.

Jon