My 'data point' math is correct for what is considered, i.e. 'franchise rights' as I stated. These are the rights that Ariad indeed has sold off, and the franchisees in those geographies will have to absorb marketing and other expenses and pay more to Ariad as sales role in.
The point being, if, I say hypothesize "if", Ariad were to also sell those type of rights for NA and Europe, i.e. get out of the Iclusig direct sales and marketing business altogether and be a development house, the amount of money that might be worth, considering higher prices for the drugs in NA/Eu territories would be a floor of $340MM (at 20%) and up from there.
This provides one way of quantifying, i.e. getting an handle on what Iclusig is worth to Ariad. Folks can then discount incoming cash from there to arrive at what Ariad is worth. I have not done that math, but at a glance, it is not a huge number (not in great excess of the current market cap).
To pom's point, starry eyed investors in Ariad ignore Ariad's cash requirements for it becoming a great company. Iclusig went from being valued at $3.5B (mkt cap) to $1.3B. It's far easier to borrow money when your cap is higher than lower.
I think HB is hoping '113 saves the company. I think it's possible that '113's sales will quickly eclipse those of Pona's and permit another stock dilution or 2 along the way. This money would then pay for restarting R&D and funding mN trials. Still the delays, all by HB own hand, have denied LOYAL shareholders any returns, literally for 20+ years. So much good science squandered, with just a 'proprietary font' to show for $100MM wasted on the 2012 raise alone.
Ariad management has erred repeatedly, praised as heroes every time they save the company from screw-ups that these same managers created. Yet they have no problem awarding themselves stock on the declines.
I say dump them. Sell what they have good now, and proceed. HB will likely only screw it up, as he has time and time again.
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