Replies to post #1462 on Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)

[TREND1]

Very good question.

[Pyrrhonian]

It is a hard swallow to assume all of them would follow suit, considering the implications. They would much more likely provide both options, and of course that makes room for the v-pak (no one analyzing future revenues for either company was excluding this) claiming a minority of the market with an inferior product.

At worst Sovaldi and Harvoni prices will come down a bit across the board. Personally I have a one year target of $120 for GILD.

But what you have presented in your post is exactly the reasoning many have for selling and/or waiting to enter a position. I don't find this to be justified by anything other than fear, which has some justification of course. But it looks like the panic/over-generalizations are mostly over. Jmho

GL and happy holidays.

[bundyelvis]

You got it. You have eyes to see. Your not wearing rose colored glasses.

[GuTA]

Bc I don't trade or invest in a worst case scenario that has no evidence of happening. The price of the two treatments are not that different from one another. ABBV gave a huge discount to get to market and gain market share. Doesn't change the fact that it's an inferior solution that doctors prefer not prescribe.

The GILD treatment is by every estimation the superior treatment. Now it comes down to pricing. What prevents GILD from cutting their price to what ABBV is charging? This is what ALL companies do once an alternative hits the market. It's now a better treatment at the same price. GILD can adjust price easily, ABBV can't make a better treatment or they would have. Does that possibility mean that no one should buy ABBV?
GiLD losing 20% of market cap bc a competitor took 5% of market share leaving them with 50% + is irrational and we are already seeing a bounce as a result.

Another thought is that express scripts is playing a dangerous game. You exclude pharma providers that have shown to be pioneers in developing new treatments. What happens when GILD comes up with the next break through and none of express scripts customers can get it? Think that will be a problem? They can't get by for long cutting exclusive deals with drug cos with inferior solutions just bc it fattens their bottom line.

[GuTA]

The government also knows that breakthrough R&D is the result of revenue from sales of previous drugs. Start giving away drugs and what drives R&D for the next cure?