Replies to post #31671 on T/A ETF AND INDEX

[POKERSAM]

I have always said that both the bull and bear scenarios were possible. It has been my gut feeling that the bear scenario that you pointed out in your link was the most probable.
During this entire climb from 666 both counts were in lock step. It has been a 123 or an ABC. There are times when a 123 and an ABC are both possible. This advance from 666 has been one of them. Their sub waves are identical. An abc and a 123 have sub waves of 5-3-5.
As I showed on my chart Grand Super Cycle wave [IV] could have ended in an expanded flat at 666 and now it appears that it did. The two different scenarios have reached a point where the ABC has become much less probable because the C is too long. The 123 has become much more probable.
The EWP evidence now points strongly in the direction of the bull market beginning in 2009 continuing in its third wave of an impulse that began at 666 in 2009.
It is not a matter of how I feel or what I want to see happen. In EWP it is a matter of rules and guidelines and following the evidence regardless.
I see a "pause" coming in cycle wave IV next year or so but nothing like the bear scenario. Before that happens cycle wave III must complete. Once cycle wave V completes in a few years there will be a Super Cycle wave two retracement that will retrace the five cycle wave impulse from 666 by 50-61.8%. But that is a few years and a lot of points away.