Well, that is quite a bit higher than I expected, and over 33% higher than predicted by several here. I still think that the ABBV pricing in the EU will the major issue, since that should be the major market for its drug.
Pick up of script info will be slow due to the holidays, and there will probably little info re discounting with VA, Medicaid, prisons, wtc. for quite a while. If the stock (ENTA) pops next week (as it looks like it might based upon after-hour trades), I will tempted to sell. I may buy back in a couple months if we get a significant pull back after a possible slow pick-up of scripts in the US. Most of my ENTA shares are in a tax-deferred account so current taxes are not an issue. Longer term sales in the EU should produce significant cash for ENTA, even though it might be a lot lower than some estimate.
Generally the pricing should remove some of the uncertainty on GILD. Of course, script info in January-February from GILD and ABBV should be the most important issue on mid-term price movement. The early January TRx script numbers (reported mid-January) for GILD should be huge based on known info. I still think that >$4B HCV sale numbers in Q1 for GILD are pretty well guaranteed at this time and much higher are possible depending on the EU sales and US NRx scripts in January. My major decision will be dealing with my Jan 60 calls. Will probably exercise ~1/2 and sell the rest. Issues are whether 1) to reinvest the proceeds of sales in May options (to capture Q1 results), Jan '17 options, or retain cash; and 2) to collar exercised shares to protect profits.
It will be interesting to see DD's updated valuation for ENTA. Since I think earnings ('16 and beyond) are much more important than an enterprise valuation model, it probably will not drive my purchase/sale analysis, but it will still be interesting.
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