Replies to post #200177 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[The Other Guy]

Dumbster, many of us feel the same. Although there are games being played with the stock price by outside entities the market cap of PPHM is just not where it realistically should be. Think about the assets the company has to support a measly $250M market cap: cash on hand, Avid manufacturing, Cotara, imaging. Oh, and how could one forget Bavituximab? Current market cap values Bavi at about $100 million. Crazy!

[EYEBUYSTOX]

So why such a low pps?

IMO, The market is pricing in continuing dilution until approval, adding in risk of failure and assuming PPHM will start additional trials in other indications without a partner. In addition, the company is doing relatively little in terms of issuing news that would convince it otherwise. All of the pipeline potential in the world doesn't pay the bills.

One of the biggest reasons for the rise in 2012 was that the company came out and said the ATM would no longer be used and that they were planning on going to the end of phase 2 meeting with a partner. There was a timeline, a catalyst and the outstanding shares were fixed. Until a similar statement is made or a partner with deep pockets steps up to the plate, the company will face the same downward pressure on its stock. Not because the potential isn't there, but because company's actions tell the market that they appear to be fine with raising working capital with continued dilution via PPHMP or the ATM for the foreseeable future until bavi is approved.

Based on the company's own timeline, it will be 2017 before any approved drug is selling and the company came out and said it was expanding Avid which will only add to the burn. If they start breast or liver trials, the burn only increases higher. If there's no partner and bavi gets approved, the company will have to hire sales staff, train them, etc. all of which costs more money.

Really, the question should be, "Why isn't the pps lower when you project out the cost and dilution needed to get FDA approval and launch Bavi without a partner?"

Of course, a partner changes EVERYTHING. And we should have one by December 31st...errr, I mean March 31st...errr, I mean April 30th because SK was talking about the upcoming fiscal year...errr, I mean...2015 will be our year!