Future oil prices
Some weeks ago I was taken to task for suggesting that it was not at all certain that the oil price would stay above $ 60 per barrel. Here is a quote suggesting the same from a recent post here:
"A single political shock could be enough to send oil markets into panic, said Adam Sieminski, senior energy economist at Deutsche Bank in New York. 'If we have one more big problem we are going to have triple-digit oil prices.' Sieminski points to confrontation with Iran, a worsening of the situation in Iraq or a recurrence of devastating hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico as potential catalysts for a major rise.
Prices rose by as much as $1.20 in late trading on Friday after the United Nations inspector Mohamed El Baradei said Iran had not complied with demands to disclose the extent of its uranium enrichment programme. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad later said he 'did not give a damn' about the UN's opinion.
In a report, Sieminski argues that with the world consuming some 85 million barrels of oil a day, a supply disruption of 2 million barrels a day (60 per cent of Iran's exports) 'can only be rebalanced through an extraordinary rise in prices.'
But he believes any breaching of the $100 level would be short-lived, and that prices would fall to between $30 and $60 as increased investment brings new production and refining capacity on stream in oil-producing nations."
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