That is 100% verifiable fact. Read my posts. Then read your comments. The replies. Everything.
You act real smart when your trying to make a point and real dumb when reading mine. Your a smart cookie. Give it your honest effort.
RE: you gave no link to justify again that you constantly say I say thing when in fact it is a jubbled up personal interpretation. Only a spin and you are the analyst screaming variables and you do not even know the differnce of the adjustable varibles and constant variables like APRR which is the the locked figure for last year
These are your variables.. Not mine. Once again, if your took the time to go back and read my post, I explained prior to your mentioning the word variables... "ARRR,APRR,ALRR are not the best was to forcast CBQI's future." I gave my reason as well: "The company is going through a lot of change." Then I suggested you and I both take our focus off your method of analysis and look at Cash Flow and Revs. These are both potentually positive IF 100% of the loss was attributed to the discontinued operations which I understand is the case, according to you (Correct?).
I did not say I was "unwilling" to do the projections but rather stated that I dont think APRR,ARRR, and ALRR is an effective projection of the future. However, if do go back and re-read my posts and then your own, I am confidant that you find my position a credible one. It is not "Spin." I resent that view considering the content of my posts and more specifically, their tone earlier in the discussion. You were stalking me and proded me into this discussion and now you fail to provide the opportunity to close it. It is appearing that you do not wish to discuss this at all. You are more interested in dragging it into a new discussion.
Go back to my original reply to your APRR,ARRR, and ALRR post. Read it and we try this discussion again.
But you do not want to use the other locked variables so now you want to spin that they have to be adjusted. That is nonsense. They are the variables that are use with the current information to calculate the effeciency of the company in its growth and profitablility to revenues.
Once again, you were the one who began the discussion about this subject. To project an accurate ARRR for 2001, a reasonable person will account for potential growth or decline in revenues (each quarter). If the orginal revenue projection was $ 27 million before revs decreased by 50% then it is reasonable to adjust your ARRR in line with the current Quarterly report. In this case $21 Million (w/o accounting for projection of continued losses in revs for rest of year). But you can not stop at $ 21 Million if the revs are on the decline because we do not know for certain that thoses losses are attributed "solely" to discontinuation of specific non-core operations. If the revenues declined by 50% in Jan-Mar, why would anyone want to assume they will level off in Apr-Jun? Some PC manufactures reported concerns that the demand for hardware replacement may continue to fall until after June of 2001. Considering we are talking industry specific demand for hardware, we can combine that knowledge with CBQI's 1st quarter performance and project a continued decline in revenues through June 30, 2001. What you call spin, I call logic. If demand is falling in the industry overall, why should any of us expect it to rise for CBQI? This is why my question is so important. If the core business fell, we need to know by how much to make a reliable projection. While I do not think the core business fell by 50%, I refuse to accept your comment that core business stayed the same or increased when compared to Q4 2000.
Re: Now you want to spin they have to have ajustments. PLease. That is a terrible spin. You do not adjust constant variables.
Just so we are discussing the same method of analysis. I have these questions regardless of what varibles are locked. Flatter me if you dont mind.
Re: MY goodness I thought you knew how to evaluate properly. Example:"if revenues in core business increased by 10% then the ARRR must include an adjustment to compensate for the growth. ... No offense but what the devil are you talking about. Several things wrong here. the drop in revenues and then adjustment for growth??? That alone is a contradiction in terms.
Simple projection Gary. Going by your comment. "The 50% decline was a result of discontinued operations," CBQI's Core business may actually have grown. All we know is that it lost 50% of its revenues and it shut down the distribution leg. We do not know what the other "core" devisions did in 4Q '00 nor do we know what "core" devisions did in 1Q '01. If core devisions did $ 1 Mill in 4Q of 00 then we can smile at the $1.5 Mill it achieved the following quarter. If, and this was only an example, this is what happend, we are witnessing a 50% increase in core revenues. If we continue to project 50% gains, we would be looking at 1.5 M in q1, 2.25 M in q2,3.37 in q3, and 4.92 M in q4. OR.. projected sales of 12.04 Million in 2001. That would be in line with the press release reflecting the ARRR of $27 Million. Now if that is what is happening, which I doubt, I think it needs to be relased because it shows outstanding prospects for the future of this company. However, I am only using this as an example and do not suggest anyone use the press release to justify the above projections. They were invented solely for the purpose of this discusion and should not be construed literally.
APRR must include an adjustment, I hate to tell you APRRs do not get adjustments it is the locked know constant variale of last year. Unless you are out to deceive the public with a false evaluation. If you adjust the ANNUAl run Rate you are tampering with a constant variable used to calculate the value of the company in the present year. Get some sleep Bix you are making yourself look bad even to a novice.
Once again. If you want me to answer your question with respect to APRR,ALRR, and ARRRR, I want the figures regardless of the method you choose to use.
Thank You
Bix
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