New business and sustainable business or two different things...
"The fact that these are test markets puts EDIG in an enviable position should any one or several of these markets prove to be as remotely successful as, say, the ipod was."
That's a nice little dream you have there, wireless headphones become all the rage and everyone runs to EDIG to order millions of units. Not going to work that way. IF this product were to be even remotely successful, OEM would make an end run around EDIG faster than you can say "razor-thin margins".
An OEM throws a shop like EDIG a bone like these headsets because they do not want to commit resources to an "iffy" project". The bring in EDIG, they test the waters, and if successful, they commit the resources to take it from there. Do you think EDIG owns the design of the headphones they are producing? Do you think it would matter if they did? These is simply no reason to continue to pay EDIG anything once an OEM decides to really move forward.
As for F-T, if there is a 400k installed base, why order only 4000? If my math is correct, that is 1% of the installed base with no firm reorder at this point, does that sound like they expect this to have a high take rate? Seeing that these units are what, a year overdue, and the fact that there is no firm production schedule going forward tells me that this is clearly a toe in the water thing. Once it becomes more than that, EDIG will be long gone. (Unless EDIG continues to sell below their own cost at the stock holders expenses, then maybe they can stay involved.)
So what is it that make you think these markets are going to be so huge for EDIG when the OEM that are paying the bills are clearly less optimistic than you are. Hat do you know that they don't? Do you have some special insight into the wireless headphone market? Do you have your finger on the pulse of the in-car MP3 market? Or do you just want it to be so?
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