Replies to post #20720 on The New CS Board

[rab120]

Thank you DDD.

[dindindon]

12/07/14 some follow-up works

This post summarize a few scatter topics together. some older material has been merged into this self-contained post. sorry for the redundancy.

(1) Important peak has been anticipated but has not been confirmed ( < 1996)

i am watching for any signs of a developing reversal lower.

(1.1) Middle term upper rail projection

SPX http://www.chartupload.com/images/99280192870917928554.jpg
2079.76 2104.27
2069.93 2085.06 2100.20 2115.20 2130.46

DJI http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485

As of 12/05/14
SPX 2079.76 vs. actual 2079.47 (+0.014%)
DJI 17975.13 vs. actual 17991.19 (-0.089%)

(1.2) 2015 worst case lower rail projection

Here is the worst case number for both DJI & SPX in 2015.
SPX 1577 - 1651 (approx. 20% off)
DJI 14263 - 14198

Charts depict the FIB relationship that the middle point between Oct/11 low to Dec/14 high (as of 12/05) is almost to the exact peak in Oct/07. Therefore, i am ‘convinced’ the apex is around the corner (with + 1~2% overrun),

DJI: Peak observed in 2007 is the middle point in between October/1110404.49 & recent high 17991.19 (12/05)
http://www.chartupload.com/images/04182133367648669401.jpg

SPX: Peak observed in 2007 is the middle point between October/11 low 1074.77 and recent high 2079.47 (12/05)
http://www.chartupload.com/images/26163504060383682835.jpg

In essence: Important peak has been anticipated , it is around the corner. One of the factors that continues to corroborate this assessment is the divergence of highs among the indices. SPX vs. NYA, SPX vs. RUT.

2) RUT & SPX divergence

2014 divergence
RUT marked double peaks, (1212.82 03/04), (1213.55 07/01). There is an obvious divergence between RUT & SPX in between March and December. The head chasing tail game is much complicated than those in 2000 and 2007. Especially after October Low, It is interesting to see either RUT pulls down SPX or SPX pulls up RUT,


Divergence in between SPX & RUT observed near 2007’s market Top.
http://www.chartupload.com/images/69920303216812123138.jpg

Divergence in between SPX & RUT observed in Summer/Fall 2002’s market Top.
http://www.chartupload.com/images/61436563608302826452.jpg

(3) Cycles

i nailed 09/19 SPX high by luck

date: off 1 trading day. 09/18 vs. 09/19
http://www.chartupload.com/images/44473658094155286587.jpg

magnitude: off 0.09 points, 2019.17 vs. 2019.26
http://www.chartupload.com/images/61360258892975648112.jpg

so, i applied the same method again.
Here is the follow-up works:

RUT has a 21/22 calendar week (104 trading day) cycle, next due is 04/28-29 +/-
SPX has a 32/33 calendar week (157 trading day) cycle, next due is 04/15-16 +/-

The minimum usage would be that the time window can serve as a turn date observer and a reversal flag, thus all; Two 32/33-week cycle length is the same as three 21/22-week cycle, the shorter harmonics can be viewed as the aliasing between that two major cycles. The short cycles in between each main cycle behaves differently. imho. hunting shorter harmonic cycles is susceptible with noises, a task that invites frustration. I have no visibility what is the polarity will be for the coming April time window and how indices get there is also hard to see. For short term trader, Now, flex your ‘brain muscle’, we “suppose” to see SPX head down from the Dec high, right?

32/33 week cycle (157 trading day) observed in SPX, if recurs, due 04/15-16/2015, +/-


21/22 week cycle (104 trading day) observed in RUT 2000, if recurs, due 04/28-29/2015, +/-


self-reference:
1
2

[dindindon]

02/28 DJI has met an important upper target

my archives

Friday, 12/05/14 04:41:21 PM link

Charts depict the FIB relationship that the middle point between Oct/11 low to Dec/14 high (as of 12/05) is almost to the exact peak in Oct/07. Therefore, i am ‘convinced’ the apex is around the corner (with + 1~2% overrun),
DJI http://www.chartupload.com/images/04182133367648669401.jpg
SPX http://www.chartupload.com/images/26163504060383682835.jpg

Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM link

SPX
2079.76 2104.27
2069.93 2085.06 2100.20 2115.20 2130.46

DJI
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485

Use the numbers observed on 12/05

SPX
2079.76 * 1.02 = 2121.36 vs. 2119.59, ATH on 02/25
DJI
17975.13 * 1.02 = 18334.63 vs. 18244.40 ATH on 02/25

the DJI is bounded within the 2% limit with additional 90.23 points for margin (18334.63-18244.40) , i am not calling the TOP, i am saying that i think DJI has met an important upper target that may last for a while. What on the table is a confirmation, that is a daily close below 18039 ( = (17975+18103)/2 ).
Regarding SPX, the condition is dangling, i defer the conclusion till more evidences comes in.