Replies to post #56853 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Whosetosay]

pom, I believe the price is rising somewhat according to wrote back in July.

So the good news is possibly $9 by next year sometime, more (maybe $12-15) if the molecule next is great, $3-5 more ($20+) if we get bought out, less if we have bad news. Of course we could get all that today if they open the kimono.

This more rapid rise recently is because management finally opened up, and has admitted what has been pointed out here for so long, i.e., there is a cash problem. And it is chronic.

By admitting that, they bring all sorts of options into play. They hinted at some sort of partnering, but who knows, HB has always been shady about when and how he raises money.

Ironically, their biggest fear about talking about the cash crunch kept the pps down. Now that they have announced it, you know HB is hoping that the pps rising on speculation will permit another float. If ASH does some good, (my expectation for the pps re: ASH are modest), and mN is very promising, we'll get to $9/$11 sooner now that management has come clean on cash. It could permit a float.

Pona is not likely alone supporting the business for several years. '113 will likely replace Pona as the franchise drug (as early as late 2015). '113 is doing better than expected, as its competitors have run into issues.

Pona needs 100's of $MM for trials to regain it's market value, money that Ariad doesn't have, and time is working against. Pona still has to confirm its approved dose in the dosing trial. GIST is small and no reg trial is planned. We are in year 3 of patent protection, and Pona will be in year 6 before it's markets are fully identified/growing. Half of Pona's protection will have expired.

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