Replies to post #38707 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[Toofuzzy]

Hi Alton

Gold, silver, copper, oil, are all at lows now.

I havent looked at aluminum, timber, or agriculture commodities.

Toofuzzy

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Alton, Re: Buying from the Scared............

This week's Value Line shows just the type of excess of Scared that you are
describing. Literally for decades I've watched the Best and Worst
Performing Stocks list in Value Line (Page 33 of the Summary and Index
section) for just these types of events.

Currently 13 of the 41 Worst Performing Stocks over the last
13 weeks are energy related companies. (there might be an extra one or two
that I don't recognize) This type of sector specific bias has always shown
to occur when that sector is heavily over-sold. The range over the last 13
weeks for this group is between -30% to -70%, so these are
not casual discounts, but real hard boiled sell-offs.

During such times I've then gone to the Value Line sector pages that
represent these oversold companies and hunted for the "best of the worst"
as potential additions to my portfolio. It would seem this would be an
ideal time do do such.

[SFSecurity]

Hi Alton, Having spent the day poring over ValueLine Small & Mid Cap for the Natural Gas (Diversified), Natural Gas Utility, and Pipeline Master Limited Partnerships, I think you are correct. However, I suspect they have a ways to go yet to hit bottom. Perhaps adopting Ocroft's method for selecting the right index to buy into might be a good idea. One slight adaption would be needed which is to go back and find a high point to start loading data from. Then look for a neutral or uptick after the last buy signal. This won't get you in at the bottom but awful close.

Now to find the right list of index funds to work with.

Best,

Allen