Thanks Jess, your interpretation is correct. One tiny little (insignificant) little detail I did not make clear...My August guessitmate is based on the average (or MEAN) number of days it has taken for drugs to get to market after receiving FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation. The figure you reference is the MEDIAN (or midpoint). However, this turns out to be irrelevant because the MEDIAN time to market is (and get this...) 9.95 months (298.5 days). Sooo, the punch line is, take the AVERAGE or the MEDIAN and you STILL END UP WITH AUGUST.
And lest anyone things I'm taking this little exercise too seriously, let me post all of the disclaimers that are on the blog...
TC
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1. Double check my math (it's late, I'm tired, and...seriously, help me out here).
2. There were 58 drugs approved (one list says 68, but I'm only counting 58), and of these...14 have have been approved: I have NOT counted the days that unapproved drugs have been waiting for approval, so someone might want to calculate new intervals given these "not yet approved" drugs. I have treated FDA Approved and "NOT APPROVED" as apples and oranges because, well, see point 1 above.
3. Yes, I get that every drug is different and the path for one drug's approval need not predict the path of another. As such, who the heck knows when AP26113 will get approved....I'm just giving a RANGE of possible approval dates IF it gets approved.
4. And, yes, it may never be approved. There's no guarantee whatsoever the "BTD" leads, without fail, to FDA Approval.
5.[new disclaimer] one drug is counted twice b/c it was approved for two different indications...so, in fact, the number of DRUGS approved is only 13, while drugs for specific INDICATIONS is 14.
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