Replies to post #183895 on Biotech Values

[jq1234]

I thought CLDX GBM combo with Avastin data were really good when I read the PR, just like everyone else on Twitter, but changed my mind completely when I looked at the slide presentation.

From the slide, patients disease baseline characteristics favor combo arm heavily: time from diagnosis, prior relapse, surgery after last relapse. The last small ph2 trial (70 something patients) that generated stat significant PFS/OS with baseline disease characteristics skewed heavily in favor of study treatment arm I remember was SNTA's elesclomol in mMelanoma trial which failed ph3 miserably later on. I am not predicting ph3 failure here at this point, but think heavy skepticism should apply here.

Note: This was Ohad's write-up on SNTA's ph2 melanoma result. Even though he pointed out all of those imbalances and contradictions, he still bought into the data at that time which I disagreed. GSK did buy into it too via partnership.

http://www.orf-blog.com/will-synta-break-a-30-year-old-record-part-ii/