The lack of Sunni involvement in the Iraq government and/or in positions of influence, and effect, still seems to be the elephant in the Iraq room, and i'm surprised James Traub didn't mention it. Though that of his was basically on the Syria situation.
Yes, you've seen a couple of Nir Rosen's here on Tornado Alley. One from 2012
which in time past since has been shown to be spot on. In one of 2014 he gets a mention, this one on the GW Bush administration's Iraq fiasco ..
An Iraqi perspective: How America’s destruction of Iraqi society led to today’s chaos .. bit ..
Holland: A few years back, Nir Rosen wrote that an “obsession with sects informed the US approach to Iraq from day one of the occupation.” But how did this sectarian animosity emerge at the neighborhood level? Take me into a mixed neighborhood and tell me how the invasion caused people who used to be neighbors to turn against each other.
Jarrar: It started just by bringing up people’s sectarian divisions. I think making it a political identity was the first destructive force. And this happened right after the fall of Baghdad, when the US created the Iraqi Governing Council. The IGC was the first entity in Iraq’s contemporary history where people were selected based on their sectarian and ethnic identity. It had never before been the case that people were selected to serve because they were Sunni or Shiite or Kurdish. That brought it up to the surface. They started this quota system for political affiliations and then the ruling parties started playing on these divisions. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=103665377
in which the GWB crowd not only planted seeds for the civil war in their de-Baathification policy, but also brought sectarian division to the fore to fertilize the seeds, as that bit makes clear. Hence, i'd say, the Obama administration's understanding as put in yours,
"Better to have a regime and a state than not to have a state"
BEIRUT | By Mariam Karouny and Tom Perry Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:51am EDT
Please read the post that I'm replying to. It's sounds like Nir Rosen has it right? Maybe? Hopefully? Please! I believe this will not be the third day ending of this ceasefire in this area. They extended it one day, I 'll see If I can find where maybe they extended it One more again..fingers crossed!.. this way all across Syria, little by little..Enough already anymore and it's a triple war crime, I'm sure you caught where the daesh is using chemical weapons again.. 1st time was in July.. .
Smoke rises after what activists said was shelling by the forces of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Old Aleppo's Kadi Askar area, Syria, August 1, 2015. Reuters/Abdalrhman Ismail
Syria's warring parties declared a 48-hour ceasefire in two frontline areas on Wednesday after unprecedented mediation from Turkey and Iran, signaling a new approach by some of the main regional backers of the opposing sides.
The ceasefire halted fighting between insurgents on the one hand, and the army and its Lebanese militant Hezbollah allies on the other, in the rebel-held town of Zabadani and in a pair of Shi'ite Muslim villages in Idlib province.
The two areas are strongholds of each side under ferocious attack by the other. Sources familiar with the talks, which have been under way for weeks, said the truce could be extended to give time for ongoing negotiations aimed at evacuating civilians and combatants.
Three officials close to Damascus described the truce as a result of mediation by Turkey, which backs rebels fighting against President Bashar al-Assad, and Iran, whose support has been vital to his survival.
It adds to recent signs of new efforts in the region to end diplomatic deadlock over a conflict that has killed a quarter of a million people, made 10 million homeless, left swathes of Syria in the hands of Islamic State militants and divided the countries of the Middle East on sectarian grounds.
After four years in which diplomats made no headway toward peace, countries that support Assad and his opponents have been quietly discussing ways to end the war and tackle the common threat from Islamic State. But Assad's fate remains a major obstacle to the new diplomatic effort.
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in Damascus on Wednesday and met with Assad. He was expected to discuss a new peace plan for Syria.
Before he arrived, rebels bombarded the capital with rockets and the government launched air strikes on nearby rebel positions. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the war, said 13 people were killed and 20 wounded by the rebel rockets, and 31 killed in the government air strikes.
Sources on both sides of the civil war told Reuters earlier on Wednesday the truce was to begin at 6 a.m. (0300 GMT), and negotiations would continue. The rebel group Ahrar al-Sham had led the talks on the insurgents' side.
"A ceasefire began at 6 a.m. today for 48 hours to halt military operations in Zabadani," Hezbollah's al-Manar TV reported. "It also includes the two villages of al-Foua and Kefraya in the Idlib countryside."
Abu Walid al-Zabadani, a fighter with Ahrar al Sham in Zabadani, said: "We have stopped firing. It's from both sides."
"As fighters on the ground, we were not interested in this ceasefire, but it is led by our commanders and we have to abide by their orders," he told Reuters from Zabadani. A second rebel said there were 200 injured insurgent fighters in the town.
Hezbollah said Islamic State gunmen had opened fire in Zabadani in an attempt to break the ceasefire but other insurgent groups had intervened to stop them.
Zabadani, about 45 km (30 miles) northwest of the capital Damascus and about 10 km from the border with Lebanon, has been the focus of a weeks-long offensive by the army and Hezbollah aimed at wresting control of the town from rebels.
The two Shi'ite villages of al-Foua and Kefraya, meanwhile, have been targeted in a parallel offensive by an insurgent alliance that includes both the Sunni Islamist Ahrar al-Sham and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front.
The United Nations envoy for Syria said last month that government air strikes had caused widespread death and destruction in Zabadani, and expressed concern that civilians were trapped both there and in the two Shi'ite villages.
Sources on both sides say negotiations are underway about a possible evacuation of civilians from the two villages, and a withdrawal of rebel fighters from Zabadani. The evacuation of the critically wounded had been agreed but logistics were still being worked out.
Ahrar al-Sham said last week it was holding talks with an Iranian delegation over Zabadani.
TURKEY REVAMPS STRATEGY
While years of diplomacy have so far made no progress toward ending the war, there are signs of a new push in recent weeks following Iran's nuclear deal last month with major powers including both the United States and Russia.
Turkey, a major regional power and opponent of Assad, is revamping its strategy toward the Syria war. It is pressing for a buffer zone in Syria near its frontier, free of Islamic State fighters and controlled by opponents of Assad.
The Iranian nuclear talks saw the first direct, top level diplomacy between Iran and the United States since Iranian revolutionaries stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. Any progress on Syria could be seen as a major example of what both foes have said might be wider diplomatic benefits.
In Iraq, the United States and Iran are both supporting the government against Islamic State, with Washington providing air support and Tehran providing aid to government-allied Shi'ite militia on the ground.
In Syria, the United States and regional powers including Turkey and Saudi Arabia say Assad must go as part of any settlement. Iran and Russia have stuck by him.
Underscoring the divide between Assad's foreign friends and enemies, Russia and Saudi Arabia failed in talks on Tuesday to overcome differences over his fate.
But the fact that such talks are taking place at all is a sign of progress after the years of diplomatic stalemate.
The war has turned Syria into a patchwork of areas run by an array of armed groups including the ultra-hardline Islamic State, a well-organized Kurdish militia, the Nusra Front and other rebels who espouse a nationalist agenda.
The Observatory estimates Assad's control at around 25 percent of Syria, including its most populous areas such as the capital, Damascus.
The government has been losing ground in recent months, which Western officials say should encourage Assad to negotiate. He showed no sign of a willingness compromise in a speech last month.
(Additional reporting by Laila Bassam and John Davison, and Babak Dehghanpisheh in Beirut, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman, and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin in Dubai; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Peter Graff)
.. sorry to see lasting truce times not here, yet ..
August 16, 2015
DAMASCUS: Shelling resumed on Saturday in two government-held villages in northwestern Syria and a rebel town near Damascus, state media, rebels and a monitor said, as a ceasefire for the areas collapsed.
State television said a child and her father had been killed and 12 others wounded in “terrorist shelling” on the regime-held villages of Fuaa and Kafraya in Idlib province.
“Since this morning, at least 200 rockets have been fired at the Shiite villages of Fuaa and Kafraya,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Government forces and allies were meanwhile shelling rebel positions in opposition-held Zabadani, Abdel Rahman said.
The Observatory, a British-based monitor, said rebels had fired about 20 missiles at the two villages and also reported shelling on the rebel-held town of Zabadani.
Sources on both sides had said talks had been aimed at securing a withdrawal of rebel fighters from Zabadani and a withdrawal of citizens from the two villages.
Ahmed Qara Ali, spokesman for the Ahrar Al Sham insurgent group, said rebel groups had begun to escalate military operations after the collapse of negotiations between the warring sides brokered by Turkey and Iran.
Ahrar Al Sham had been leading the negotiations on behalf of the insurgents. There was no immediate word from Hizbollah, or the Syrian military.
Qara Ali said: “The reason it has collapsed is we wanted the release of 40,000 prisoners, and the Iranians rejected it.”
The negotiations reportedly stumbled over an opposition insistence that thousands of prisoners be released from government jails, according to Abdel Rahman.
Negotiations were continuing despite the ceasefire faltering.
“The talks are ongoing, but there are breaches in the ceasefire,” he said, citing sources close to the talks.
“It’s not clear if the breaches are attempts by the parties to improve the conditions of the deal or come from those who want to thwart the negotiations,” he said.
Elsewhere, state television said at least three people were killed and 14 injured by rebel rocket fire on a school in a government-held district of Aleppo city.
The Observatory put the toll at two dead, saying rebels had fired a barrage of several dozen rockets at multiple parts of the government-held west of the city.
A rebel fighter in Zabadani said army warplanes were flying over the town.
In Fuaa, a resident confirmed the bombardment.
“Today we’ve been hearing the sound of explosions since dawn,” the resident said.
“The truce failed and the attacks have resumed.”
The truce agreement between rebel groups and pro-regime factions, including Lebanon’s Shiite militia Hizbollah, came into effect early Wednesday morning in the town of Zabadani near the Lebanese border and two Shiite villages of Kefraya and Al Fuaa in the northwestern province of Idlib.
Before its expiry on Saturday morning, intensive negotiations had been underway for an extension of the ceasefire and a full deal.
The talks centred on the withdrawal of rebels from Zabadani and the evacuation of civilians from Fuaa and Kefraya, which are the last two government-held villages in Idlib province. Zabadani has been the focus of a weeks-long offensive by Hizbollah and the army against insurgent groups holed up inside.
Insurgent groups had in turn launched a parallel attack on the two villages.
Families are being torn apart by the Refugee Crisis
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Bombing of Syrian refugee camp could be war crime, says UN chief
Airstrikes leave dozens dead in camp near Sarmada, with MSF saying attack shows civilians are paying price for conflict
Kareem Shaheen in Beirut Friday 6 May 2016 22.45 AEST
The aftermath of the bombing of the al-Kammouneh refugee camp in Syria. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
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Shia shrine near Damascus hit by double bomb attack
At least eight killed as suicide attacker and car bomb target entrance to Sayyida Zeinab shrine south of Damascus
Syrians gather around burning buildings after the attack at the Sayyida Zeinab shrine. Photograph: Uncredited/AP
Agence France-Presse Saturday 11 June 2016 20.44 AEST Last modified on Saturday 11 June 2016 22.07 AEST
A double bomb attack outside a Shia shrine near Syria’s capital has killed at least eight people in the latest in repeated deadly strikes on the revered site, state media said.
The official Sana news agency said a suicide bomber and a car bomb struck at the entrance to the Sayyida Zeinab shrine, which is revered by Shia Muslims around the world.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group, reported a higher toll of at least 12 people killed and 30 wounded in the blasts.
The shrine, about 10km (six miles) south of the centre of Damascus, is heavily guarded by pro-government forces but has still been the target of several jihadi attacks, including those claimed by Islamic State.
Syria’s official Al Ekhbariya channel showed images from the scene of burnt-out cars with billowing plumes of black smoke. Firefighters battled to extinguish the flames as shop signs lay in the street.
The last attack on Sayyida Zeinab on 25 April killed at least seven and wounded dozens.
A string of Isis bombings near the shrine in February left 134 people dead, most of them civilians, according to the Observatory. And in January, another attack claimed by Isis killed 70 people.
Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah cited the threat to Sayyida Zeinab as a principal reason for its intervention in Syria’s civil war on the side of Bashar al-Assad.
The shrine contains the grave of Zeinab, a venerated granddaughter of the prophet Muhammad, and is renowned for its glistening golden, onion-shaped dome.
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