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ls7550

11/13/14 5:50 PM

#38581 RE: SFSecurity #38580

where did you get the S&P back to 1876 and the inflation figures as well?

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls
from http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

If you go back as far as they cover, historical inflation for 1665 - 2014 is only 0.94%/year but if one only goes back 50 years to 1964 the rate is 4.12%/year.

We used to have periods of both inflation and deflation in around equal measure, broadly 0%. This is a UK chart, but the US version looks similar



Then we started to come off the gold standard after WW1 and progressively decoupled up to Nixon decoupling totally to help pay for the Vietnam war. Such that post 1930's there's only been (generally) inflation (more $'s printed and backed by nothing other than a promise).

A English Pound used to be a pound weight of Silver. A gold sovereign coin was (and still has) a face value of one pound (but has a gold metalic value of around $280 - there have been times when copper pennies have been worth more for their copper price than their monetary value).

Henry VIII was known as Copper Nose for devaluing by mixing copper into newly minted 'silver' coins. After some wear, the nose on his protruding facial image on the face of the coin would wear to reveal the copper beneath. In the 1930's it was made illegal to own investment gold in the US and such gold had to be 'sold' to the Fed for around $20/ounce (the monetary price fix at the time). Then the price of gold was ramped up to $35/ounce (price refixed higher).

Other tricks have been via taxation. Inflation bonds sold as the 'safest' bonds, but where the inflationary uplift element is taxed. 20% inflation, inflation bond pays 20%, but is taxed 35% and investor is -7% down in real (inflation adjusted) terms. Countries/States can do all sorts of tricks to help float their economy. One of the best inflation hedges are stocks as they're more global, less tied to any single country/state. Companies just choose a state/country to register their business/pay taxes, often where its deemed to be tax efficient and politically stable to do so.