Replies to post #45480 on Rim Semiconductor Company (fka RSMI)

[jjz34]

For the record, I cringed when I read that also. As much as I would love to see that happen, I just don't see how these speculative predictions do anybody any good. There are so many unknown variables yet to be determined one way or the other.

[cosmoworld7]

your logic is correct, but then how do you take into account that the price is currently around .14. Markets are too difficult to predict, although I agree that $7.76 is a joke.

Also $7.76 at the current OS would result in a 2.5 billion dollar market cap. Ridiculous.

[427Cobra]

spoke: You make some valid points. Here are the figures I believe are different from some of your assumptions. I am not saying you are wrong for sure, but I believe these variables are more likely to be accurate.

Ikanos did $35 mil their last quarter, so they are in the $140 mil or above annual revenue now.

Rim's chip is more likely to be in the $20 to $30 range with VoiP, Router and WiFi capabilities, as they add cost to the chip, but greatly reduce the overall cost of those features.

Rim should get about 60% gross margin, and 15% net margin.

With new capabilities in the market place, and with increased competition for the telecos, the total sales will likely spike up.

The PE for this specific segment of semiconductors is higher than $25 I believe, and could reach $40 to $60.

[destiny12903]

Spoke,

You are correct, my projections do require objective substantiation.

Hopefully, I'll be able to find your numbers to be objective regarding Ikanos and the telco industry, as well. We'll continue this converstion after I verify a few things.

[WHP03]

Thanks for putting a few numbers to the obvious problem... RIM can't get there from here, and the last round of death spiral funding is going to assure a new all-time low before the next major pump. RIM isn't in the business of producing product and shareholder value; they are however very good at instilling hope and creating a successful series of pumps. I've finally learned that lesson and hope they can repeat their past success in this regard at least one more time so I can get at least a few points of my original investment back.