If the norm when using a vending machine is to use cash, that's what USAT is competing with. Right? Basically, that's your argument in your post.
If the trend is to pay for things with a cell phone, then cashless transactions are going way up. That one is pretty obvious.
You can argue that trend is not going to happen and that's certainly a valid point. NFC technology has been around for a decade. It hasn't overwhelmed retail transactions.
Will retail pick up the NFC trend? Will they make it go a little faster? This certainly may take 5 to 10 years.
Given how USAT has been around for so long, and is one of your bug-a-boos, I'm willing to stipulate they aren't going away when they have the means to raise money, and the industry trend is coming to them.
Right now they are in a race to lock up vending equipment.
Apple users may be the stimulus to make the NFC trend accelerate. 5 Major retails were so concerned and balked at Apple Pay. They are creating their own system. There's enough money in cashless payments to scare everyone into action.
There's a lot of unknowns out there.
What's not known is how the industry is going to adapt. Is USAT going to build a business model like SIRI to get receivers in 75% of all cars in America? Is USAT going to be a big enough player to get their equipment pre-installed in vending machines, AND provide all of the add on services their customers and trade magazines say is what makes for a better mouse trap.
The trade articles all point out that with credit cards, the merchants don't get any customer data; the banks get it all.
USAT puts end-user customer data into the vending machine owners' computers.
I am riding this investment out for a while.