While I am not looking for sp to skyrocket anytime soon without a big surprise, I disagree with some of your statements.
"We are 2 yr away from OS pancreatic results"
Primary Outcome Measures: •Estimate the PFS duration of PEGPH20 combined with NAB plus GEM [ Time Frame: 12 months ] [ Designated as safety issue: Yes ]
•To evaluate the thromboembolic events in subjects treated in the PAG arm [ Time Frame: Ongoing ] [ Designated as safety issue: Yes ]
Estimated Primary Completion Date: April 2016 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
I agree there is not much difference between 18 and 24 months for results but keep in mind the fast track status, orphan designation, enrollment ratio of 2:1 and PFS of NAB/GEM is only 5.5 months. This trial could be halted for positive effects within the next year and everyone moved to study drugs.
"We are looking at a company that has low royalties 4-5%"
I believe the definition of mid single digit is 4-6% so lets say 5% for arguments sake. Roche did not give a detailed outline of country specific penetration over Q2 but they did report a 45% increase in launch countries since Q2, from 20 to 29. While 5% of a single so-so drug may not be much to crow about, 5% of three blockbuster drug sales is very significant. Because of reporting delays, without a surprise, the shorts have a few quarters before the handwriting is on the wall. Watch the API sales reported for Q3 coming in under 2 weeks. While the sp may not skyrocket short term for traders, it will be much higher for investors 12 months from now imo.
"We need a diabetic product partnership?
Innovation? To grow pipeline?"
We do not need anything except to continue progressing on the path we are on. Anything new is gravy on the train.
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