[The FBR report seems to be ignoring the fact that NVS and IDIX have a standstill agreement until May, 2008. Thus, while NVS might *want* to acquire IDIX on the cheap, there is no way for them to do it during the next two years unless a majority of IDIX’s non-NVS directors and non-NVS shareholders agreed.]
>> Idenix Pharma: Acquisition alternative, which would cost Novartis under $200 mln now, looking more attractive - FBR (IDIX) 11.50 +0.44:
Friedman Billings notes that IDIX announced its lineup of presentations at the Digestive Disease Week meeting to be held on May 20-25[#msg-10762650]. They say the highlight will be data showing a ten-fold benefit with telbivudine versus[GILD’s]Hepsera.
With its resistance profile improving as more data come in, they think telbivudine is looking like it will emerge as the standard of care in hepatitis B, and their near-$400 mln peak worldwide sales estimate could be low[I think it is].
Firm notes that IDIX now has an enterprise value of roughly $400 mln, a bargain even if all IDIX had was telbivudine, which should have peak sales near $400 mln (IDIX splits profits with Novartis). They say NVS pays 100% of the trial costs of telbivudine and NM283. Since NVS will pay IDIX another $500 mln related to NM283 approvals, they think the acquisition alternative, which would cost majority-owner Novartis under $200 mln now, is looking more attractive. <<
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