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SoxFan

10/25/14 9:05 PM

#13102 RE: As I See It #13101

And easy thing to do to satisfy yourself is look at how many shares were outstanding in 2004 and then look at how many shares are outstanding now and see the difference. In case you are unaware they make their money from selling shares.

valueyoda

10/25/14 9:30 PM

#13104 RE: As I See It #13101

Between the end of 2008 and the end of 2013 (just a random sample, as the effect is even more extreme since inception), the outstanding shares increased from 62.9mln shares to 176.4mln shares.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103795/000101968714000875/zero_10k-123113.htm (read statement of shareholders' equity)

The increase can be attributed to issues equity from convertible debt, exercised stock options, exercised warrants, compensation and settlements.

If you subsequently, read the proxy statement (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103795/000101968713004192/stwa_def14a.htm), then one can see that nobody breached the beneficial shareholder treshold, nor was it visible in management ownership. One can safely assume that a vast majority of the increased supply has changed hands since. After the initial hype in 2012, the share price has been on a steady decline, confirming that there has been a net supply of shares in the market. The increase in share price in 2012 and the huge increase in outstanding shares, created an unbelievable market capitalization in 2012-2013.

Furthermore, this company has never received any first tier (or even second or third tier) institutional support, nor from hedge funds, oil service companies, venture capitalist or wealthy indiviudals who are willing to buy 5% or more, even as the company has come closer to large scale commercialisation of its AOT product (your words).

Again, Tao's research was critized in the past, nor did his work on oil viscoscity reduction by pulsed electrics find any relevant citations in subsequent research.

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but this company has spent a little over $10mln since inception on R&D (of which a portion was compensation reclassified as R&D) versus a multiple on stock compensation, in a highly unprofessional lab circumstances (as can be seen on the youtube clips), and has created products on a technique highly critized by academics, dismissed by oil companies over the last few decades as ineffective. Yet, STWA's competitors are spending a substantial multiple of STWA cumulative R&D budget per year, and couldn't make this work. The validated test results by third parties are highly doubtful as the results can be misconstrued by a changed baseline. Similar reductions could initially be seen by Elektra, yet the company has largely given up on that pipedream.

The decrease in share price has caused substantial issues in the future for the company's capital raising efforts, as fewer options and warrants issued in the past will be in the money, plus it now requires more dilution to cover the company's ongoing negative free cash flow.

Of course, everything will be gone and forgotten if the company receives mega orders that will create substantial free cash flows. In case, it doesn't, this company is in serious trouble. If TC doesn't order, STWA doesn't have to release its test data, plus TC is not allowed to do it either, since it has signed a NDA. Similar situation with KM. Both companies' opportunity cost to try it on a very small scale and garner data is low, but so is getting out of the lease. Yet, for STWA, this is a make or break moment. In the past, when it is was bringing Elektra on the market, and other products before, it could always fall back on other unproven concepts in the pipeline, such as AOT. Those other products have gone, and now everything hings on the commercial success of AOT. If these orders don't come through, it is the end for STWA.