Replies to post #7465 on MDA - Market Direction Analysis (MDA)

[deuce bigalow]

of course no pattern, whether it's an H&S or a shooting star is going to guarantee you a trade that will make you enough money for gold crowns on your back molars -g-

there are no guarantees about the future, there are only speculations based on past behaviors.

If this game was a slam dunk, we would have nuttin to chat about -g-

[augieboo]

Seriously, how profitable is the subsequent move after a neckline break anyway?

Tom, Bulkowski looked at 330 Inverted H&S patterns in individual stocks between 1991 and 1996. (Take note of the underlined phrases, as we do not know if his data are directly transferable to another time period.)

Here are what I consider to be the more significant stats he reports. Of the 330 Inverted H&S patterns:

Upside breakout 98%
-- consolidations 49
-- reversals 281

Throwbacks 52%

Overall failure rate 5%

Average rise of successful formations 39%

Most likely rise of successful formations 205-30%
-- using a frequency distribution [n1]

Formations meeting or exceeding their measure rule [n2] target 83%

Successful formations showing downward volume trend 62%

Average rise of up-sloping vs down-sloping neckline 38% vs 40%

Average rise of higher right shoulder vs higher left shoulder 36% vs 41%

Volume trend: Downward; usually higher on the left shoulder, diminishing on the head, and even lower on the right shoulder.

[n1] Frequency Distribution

 
 % Gain    Frequency % 
 ===================== 
 0-10       7 
 10-20     22 
 20-30     18 
 30-40     14  
 40-50      9 
 50-60      6 
 60-70      5 
 70-80      4 
 80-90      3 
 90+       12 
 

[n2] Measure Rule

Find distance from peak of head to neckline directly above head. Add this number to the point at which price breaks out above the neckline for the measure rule target.