Replies to post #183040 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ENTA—Your estimates of 38% market share is so far off from most analysts of high teens market share.

First, a clarification: My model gives ABBV/ENTA a 38% share of GT1 patient volume in the US/EU—not a 38% share of GT1 sales dollars.

Assuming that ABBV/ENTA patients pay 25% less than GILD patients on average (consistent with my model’s forecast of a $60K US price for ABBV/ENTA’s regimen), my model’s GT1 market share for ABBV/ENTA in terms of sales dollars is (0.38)(0.75) = 28.5%. In other words, my model is not as different from the various sell-side models as some people might think.

Still, I do think ABBV/ENTA will garner a larger volume share than most analysts, who suffer from what I would call Gilead Invincibility Block. Regards, Dew