Aha, no one, except the Lord knows if the technology is good or not. Only a neophyte investor would declare any biotech technology to be excellent. Now, they are all founded on excellent science, but nature is so terribly complicated, barely 1 in 100 biotech ideas ever make it out of the shop.
Since AMBS has a focus on AD I will talk about that. They just discovered what they think is an actual lab model of AD. That will allow them to for the first time to test hundreds of thousands of compounds to see if they can prevent AD in the lab.
That is the typical approach to pharma in the well funded sector anyway. No one really knows what will work, even when they get an idea.
So if you think that you have the winner, chances are you are wrong. The only way to WIN is to have a basket of companies with really good technology.
There is a company that puts toxins on antibodies and sends it to attack cancer cells. After 30 years, they got their first product out. The first 30 years found them putting toxins that were too gentle on the antibody.
As a second try with the more toxic regimen, the company failed. They have 20 more candidates in the early and clinical stage, and more likely than not, they will have more than one hit, since they now have mature technology.
AMBS is just getting in to the hit and miss opportunity. This technology is showing activity but it is by no means mature. At this stage, all companies that get funded anyway, have data on par with that of AMBS, and many times better.
And almost all of them have management that is respected and can attract grants. Two years without grants is reason in itself to wash away the BOD of AMBS. That is an unheard of time without a grant in academia and industry. That is laughably long, wait, don't let the door hit you when you leave long.
So, it is QUITE fine to invest in biotech if you have a lot of money and can afford 20 positions.
Otherwise it is a gamble and technical analysis helps to inform your trading decisions. With AMBS the market responds exceedingly well to PRs and they follow the technicals. The technicals measure only one thing. They measure the behavior of real people. Those who will hold until they are dead and buried on over to those who have a time frame of a few minutes.
Holding on to one biotech because of the technology is not investing, it is religion. Any scientist will tell you that there is no way of knowing until those TWO phase III trials come in.
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