Replies to post #182860 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Ebola the way I get the facts is that it has high fatality once you get it but hard for American non medical people to get it unless they hide the patient in house and clean the body for burial after surmise like in Africa.

Agreed that it looks like it isn't really transmissible until the final stages. Well beyond mild flu symptoms. Based upon all the clear cut cases I've seen reported (e.g. No one on the plane with the person who caused the nigeria outbreak got ebola) there is an implication that >90% of the transmissions are within a few days of death or after death. Perhaps a lot greater than 90 percent. So the R0 prior to severe symptoms is probably way way under 1.

BTW one of the interesting and problematic aspects of this is that better supportive care in the US may actually make the disease hotter for the HCWs if you haven't done something to reduce viral load.

BTW2 I read the CDC PPE guidelines several days ago and was supremely surprised that, for instance, it didn't require disinfecting hands after each step using the hands. Nice to see they have now updated the guidelines. Not clear the CDC is doing any real planning - primarily just politicking. There are very basic, very obvious things that have been clearly left undone. Although they are catching up now I'd be surprised if they were doing any modeling, checking potential new guidelines (to be employed if/when it something worse happens). Nothing to get ahead. In this case not catastrophic. But it will get worse. And they need to have responses ready to go if/when that happens.