Replies to post #11261 on Allana Potash fka AAA

[ertwo]

Allana is on schedule to get the project financed by Q4/14 or Q1/15. Please explain how you figure they will be insolvent within a year?

If this happen, everything is ok.

Why is the market not buying it?

[ertwo]

Let me think loud here.

I do not believe that the banks would advance money (debt) before the the equity part is in place. That is not how the banks operate, "your money first" it their mantra.

Rising equity part of the capital right now would be brutal to the current shareholders.
In reality there is only one way out of this death circle and it is FA patented preferred shares or similar structure, subordinated to the debt, but above the common shares.

I think this is the real reason for the SOP PEA, Farhad may be able to securitize a take-or-pay off-take from Yara (somehow) on SOP.
He definitely knows more about these things than me.

Or may be a small scale MOP operation, sell it to ICL, hell and high water. This would buy time needed and provide cashflow to securitize....
Afterall there are blending plants in Ethiopia already, ICL is building even nitrogen fertiliser plant there for $600m.

It will definitely take time (Neither Yara nor ICL is in a hurry) and the time is the greatest enemy for the current shareholders. From the logic of it, the financing will not happen this year

Without it, the share price will go to below 10 cents.
JMHO

[wshaw14]

That is real easy. "Please explain how you figure they will be insolvent within a year?" One of two things. 1. Wishful thinking or 2. Scare tactics.