peorge: I'm tying that in with past words spoken by managment of them seeing possible break even by year's end. Well, break even and being in the black is only a penny difference, technically.
So, yes, even given your additional costs there, I do think that they have a chance to be in the black by years end.
If they have 100K paying subs by years end (December), at an average of $14/sub that's $1.4MM in revenue for that month alone. Figure less for each month prior, building up to that at a rate of 11,750 subs/month starting in May, that would be each month putting on an additional $164,500.00 each month in rev (avg. $14/sub - maybe figuring low here) on top of the initial 6K subs at $14/sub (avg. from last 10K).
If those numbers may be close, then that would make from April through December total accrued revenues of $6.678MM.
Call me crazy, but I think it's possible. Sure, I know they have to keep them all by my account above, but who knows...my numbers above come out to about 142-143 subs/month/store or 30/week if figured linearly. But, don't also forget that their's gonna be more and more advertising along the way as we get closer to the holidays. IMO, it's gonna resemble a huge parabolic curve in sub count and revenue generation as the year progresses, again, IMO. So, for all we know, my numbers above may turn out to be low, and given the "churn" rate they could still end up w/ 100K paying subs by years end.
Add it up...
Month Add subs Total subs rev/sub total rev/mo accru rev
April 6000 6000 14 84000 84000
May 11750 17750 14 248500 332500
June 11750 29500 14 413000 745500
July 11750 41250 14 577500 1323000
August 11750 53000 14 742000 2065000
September 11750 64750 14 906500 2971500
October 11750 76500 14 1071000 4042500
November 11750 88250 14 1235500 5278000
December 11750 100000 14 1400000 6678000
I guess chalk it up to me being the eternal optimist. I have hope, and today's holiday is the reason why. :)
lns
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