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OldAIMGuy

09/26/14 9:13 AM

#38227 RE: SFSecurity #38221

Hi Allen, Re: Netstock.....................

SplitCycle's product is a good one and has been very solid. Occasionally the "source" data from Yahoo changes format so they have to tweak NetStock to match, but most of the time it's very good.

The alarm settings are handy as are the extra columns.

Re: Newport graphs of AIM activity.............

+ and - are correct and you can see the cash change when they appear. The short vertical lines are where I've boosted Portfolio Control via a vealie. In my case, my cash ceiling is a moving target that is dependent upon what my various risk indicator components are telling me at the time. So, for instance, after 2009, market risk remained quite low for a long time. I used the vealie to contain AIM's selling enthusiasm during that long, lower risk period. At the end of 2012, market risk started to rise so the cash ceiling was also rising. That allowed AIM to keep selling to the new ceiling as it rose. Sales were then interspersed with vealies to keep the cash percentage tightly aligned with the perceived market risk and suggested cash ceiling.

Looking from left to right on the stacked bar histogram, you can see that the total value of the "stock" portion of the holding was allowed to expand during most of the three year period even without any buying. That is the collective effect of several vealies used over that time frame. Here's a graphic again so you don't have to go back and find one:

There are long bullish periods that occur. "vealies" help out a bit during those periods. An appropriate cash reserve percentage is achieved during the early stages of the rally and then maintained as a percentage, but not exceeded, during the later portion of the bullish period. Hope this helps.