Replies to post #38182 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[ls7550]

Re AIM Beta

Not the same as I described earlier, but as a quick test I set up a AIM of VISVX and where AIM cash was set to SPY.

50% initial cash, 10% minimum trade size, 10% buy and sell safe, 50% Vealie.

i.e. as AIM indicates buy trades, then cash (SPY) reduces and VISVX exposure increases; As AIM indicates sell trades then VISVX exposure decreased, SPY exposure increased.

Total gains (including dividends)

 
 	AIM	SPY 
 1999	11.1%	20.4% 
 2000	5.8%	-9.7% 
 2001	0.7%	-11.8% 
 2002	-17.4%	-21.6% 
 2003	33.4%	28.2% 
 2004	16.7%	10.7% 
 2005	5.4%	4.8% 
 2006	17.4%	15.8% 
 2007	-0.7%	5.1% 
 2008	-34.8%	-36.8% 
 2009	31.2%	26.3% 
 2010	22.6%	15.1% 
 2011	-2.0%	1.9% 
 2012	17.6%	16.0% 
 2013	34.3%	32.3% 
 

Averaged 45% 'cash' (SPY) over those years

AIM 7.71% annualised versus SPY 5.65% annualised (VISVX annualised 8.98%).

Feb 2009 it was at near zero cash (i.e. had moved into 100% VISVX). By Jan 2013 it was back to around 50% cash (SPY).

[SFSecurity]

RE: 100% Stock AIM (AIM beta)

Wow! Great idea to look into further with more examples.

This also fits with the traditional market cycle where there is a relatively longer up cycle and a shorter down cycle historically.

Good thinking Clive.

Best,

Allen