David – I’ve posted a number of likely product rollout scenarios – revenue timeline assumptions. The last one is in post # 32229. I think this market will ramp up slowly. A) The completion/certification of the cGMP facility has not been announced yet, which limits the short-term sales to pre-clinical trails – and more importantly pre-clinical amounts - sub gram quantities. B) Even if the facility was in place it’s not clear if any commercial product could use this without additional testing – there is only one animal DNA vaccine on the market – so again the volume would be initially low. C) Even if the facility was complete and a customer could swap the material without additional testing, I don’t think any of them would right away. The liability would offset the cost advantage in the short term – at least until the safety and efficacy have been established, which will take the completion of at least one Phase I trial. So even after a customer places the first order it will take time to order more in hopefully larger quantities. Most near-term customers will likely buy a sample and then re-order if it works for them – for the next round of testing – and so on – until it can be used in a commercial product. These things move slowly. It took a year to solidify the GE supplier deal. It took about a year to move from testing to an agreement with Aldevron.
A few years back I suggested that this stock could sustain a doubling of share price each year for the next 10 years based on their product pipeline. I know that’s not as fast as some hope but when you add it up it’s still impressive. Personally, I’ve seen more to slow that projection over the last several years than speed it up but I think we may have a shot from this point forward.
I’m not in the group that’s waiting for a surprise PR. My feeling is that if some company is interested in synDNA and is testing it – a PR would have been released. And if no other company is testing now, it will be at least a year before they would be in a position to buy any significant quantity. I’m not saying that the stock won’t rise on a new customer announcement – but it won’t be a sustainable rise unless cygx starts releasing two or more new customer announcements a month. (See point A above – small initial orders.) There could be progress with the ssDNA and it would be great to see an IND submission PR but that shouldn’t be a surprise. A more significant announcement would be an IND approval but that’s a few months after the submission and probably wouldn’t come before summer – that could boost the stock by a buck or more but I don’t think it would continue to move on that announcement alone. Cygx will still need to make progress in the testing and go forward with their other products. I don’t see a magic PR on the horizon – just slow and steady progress.
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