There are plenty of scenarios where my few week estimate are going to be wrong. For example, you can have sporadic controlled outbreaks for months and then one that isn't controlled.
Once people figure out that any outbreak gets quarantined, they have every incentive to scatter before the quarantine is enforced.
Ebola isn't quite typical of most pandemics though - fundamentally not airborne, apparently not infectious prior to symptoms.
But at the very least it's going to be grim for a while.
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