Re: considering you've been saying "just wait for Conroe" for months now, and it isn't even going to arrive for another 4-5 months...and will only be at a 20% run-rate exiting 2006...
You're very good at making assumptions, Doug, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will work out that way. What if Conroe launches in 3 months? What if it ramps to 40% of sales by the end of the year? What if even 20% of volumes is enough to retake the performance market and hurl AMD's ASPs down 3 or more bins? Do you think this risk would be worth discussing, or do you really think AMD is invincible this year?
Re: is it really so terrible to talk about a part that might nullify all of Conroe's advantages within 5-6 months of Conroe's launch?
I think it will be more like 9 months. And even after K8L comes out, it won't be the slaughter it was with Toledo vs. Smithfield. Conroe is a very powerful, very power efficient CPU. If AMD manages to beat it, it won't be by very big margins, and it won't be across the board in the benchmarks. In other words, even preferred Intel users may have trouble justifying an Intel purchase today, but later this year, AMD preferred users will have trouble justifying an AMD purchase, and that backlash will be hard to recover from with a design that merely matches Conroe in performance/watt.
Re: You ever get around to buying those AMD puts, or was that just all talk? You've got 2 trading days before AMD earnings... why not step up to the plate and buy some AMD puts?
Doug, I have gone over my strategy multiple times on this forum, and I am sticking with it. I'll let you know what I decide to do after the earnings conference, which will be my deciding factor.
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