I was going to do a long post saying something similar. If we examine the July 21st 8K your explanation is one that squares with all of the facts. The 8K gives specific reasons for terminating the agreement on Oct. 15th, but none of them are about the AOT not working. In fact, the 8K goes out of its way to state that testing is ongoing and the results of the testing have not yet been determined. Why then terminate early? If TC wanted to buy the AOT skid or extend the lease, under the present agreement, they could at anytime. The price would be $4.3 million or $60,000 per month. Under that scenario there would be no need to terminate the agreement. So why do it?
As you have said, once the agreement is out of the way, then TC is free to negotiate a new lower price. This may or may not have any bearing on how well the AOT has performed. At this point, TransCanada knows that they are the only game in town for at least the near term. That gives them a lot of leverage. Remember, they have shareholders too. Why shouldn't they exploit any STWA weakness in negotiating a lower purchase price.
This would argue that the Oct. 15th date must come and go before anything else will be done, though negotiations could be currently going forward at full speed. How long after that I don't know. Will the AOT be removed, and if so when? It seems we've been told all along that it would be moved. As far back as the annual meeting that has been said. So, if it comes off the line that should not be a big deal. Unless we hear that the testing was a bust, everything else is weak circumstantial evidence.
"They HAD to cancel this lease on july 15th if they wanted to get a new wholesale price for this AOT, which, combined with the positive wording ("successfully complete testing") is a good indication about their future intentions. "
Wow that's quite a giant leap. So in you're view Tcp is just jockeying for a better price? What will be the excuse when November rolls around and no Tcp orders ?