Crook,
To begin with, let us look at your math. $15 million in sales at 100 X = $1.5billion times a per share price of $2 = $3billion, not $1.3 Hard to imagine that profit on something like software will be below 50% of the price to arrive at a value of $1.3billion for earnings.
Second, as you say, the price of the software can only be subject to speculation at this point. Perhaps part of the JTDA with GE includes some discount to price for future purchase by GE when PrintRite is commercialized. Perhaps the price of the software is not discounted but the charge per click is waived. perhaps perhaps perhaps.
Third, while at the current time GE does not have 100 machines (perhaps) I have not seen a definitive figure as to the total number of machines that GE has right now, nor have I seen credible reports as to the number of machines GE plans on purchasing over the next year, let alone 2-5 years. GE is not the only manufacturer in the market. Honeywell is clearly pushing 3D printing or they would not be involved in beta testing DEFORM. Rolls Royce, Pratt & Whitney, Airbus, Boeing come to mind as manufacturers in the aero business who would also be interested. Please do not forget that Rockville Asset stated at the time of the private placement that China was an emerging market for 3D printing.
Fourth, according to Sigma's website, they fully contemplate some form of charge per click, thus the revenue will not be merely from the sale of the software, but also the use. There is likely to be some revenue from ongoing support.
Fifth, quality control, decreasing post fabrication inspection and increasing print speed are issues that are not completely limited to the aero industry.
Sixth, what if PrintRite is qualified by the FAA? or NIST? what competitive advantage does that give Sigma?
Seventh, what about the development of other aspects of PrintRite over the near and mid-future time periods?
The momentum building in the AM marketplace is palpable. Sigma is focused on the high dollar high value segment of this market and may very well have its own momentum riding on top of the general momentum of the area. I think you are underestimating the potential market for PrintRite, underestimating the ongoing revenue stream beyond the sales price and perhaps underestimating the potential for Sigma to support a "ridiculous" value as it grows along with the rapidly growing AM market.
I am not predicting a pps or a multiple of revenues to value Sigma or a number of sales of PrintRite or the ongoing stream of revenue from pay per click or technical support or future aspects of PrintRite that will be developed and marketed. What I am saying is that the potential here is mind boggling. Absent unforeseen events (either with Sigma or for me personally) I plan on holding onto my shares of SGLB for more than the 2-5 year time frame. In fact, I plan on continuing to acquire more shares as my loose change allows (Aside...hmmm I just might be one of the accumulators discussed on other recent threads)
Uplisting, institutional support, etc etc all will have time to develop. Price per share and valuation will follow.
GLTA
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