Replies to post #3871 on Theriva Biologics Inc (TOVX)

[Seel]

It'll take until end of 2015 to reach the high end of those numbers - Trimesta will need to be solidly partnered and C-dif drug will need to have positive trial results published.
If Trimesta results had been met differently by the street a few months ago, we would be in a different price strata now. The confusing negative response would have been impossible to anticipate. I am still befuddled by it. Partnership announcement before year end (if we get it) will bump us up, though not being able to build upon anticipated, sustained price increase from Tri results will dull the spike. Initiation of c-dif trial will help sustain rise in sp if partnership announced.
Sounds like you're feeling done with SYN Ovidius? Or at least frustrated with them and with me as this is the second somewhat barbed post you've made in my direction this week. I am pleased with they way this company is moving forward. Very pleased, although I certainly would be more pleased if it had moved in accordance to my most optimal catalyst/milestone schedule.

[Seel]

I'm looking at how to 'rewrite' this January post that you referred to - now that more information is avail and trimesta results didn't spike and sustain us. Here is old post:

So - I do believe $14.00 is an appropriate estimate for sp at end of 2014. This is dependent on positive Trimesta results and completion or near completion of SYN-004 bridge study for c-dif, showing good bioavailability and same or improved tolerability/pd/pk as original agent. That profile will not be difficult to attain. They have an improved agent. Bridge study is just FDA hoop which they will jump thru with relative ease - imo.
Near term - Trimesta should move us into the 4s. Teva moving in to partner or buy the drug - high 5s to 6s. C-dif enzyme SYN-004 becoming more tangible and positive in its progress, 8.00. Completion of bridge study with positive results - closing in on the 10.00. That'll be standard of care drug. Future earnings potential projections on it, once it is shown to be a truly viable part of the pipeline, will be huge. And once those start getting published - we hit the low teens... I wish I had psychic powers! But these estimates are given thoughtfully, not just pulled out of my ***. And - I am totally prepared to take a bunch of ribbing from everyone if I am way off! (but even if I am way off, SYN is still great investment for med to long term!).

So...in a rewrite...Trimesta results were really good but not received as positive. I have no idea what to do with that ambiguity in reformulating my own personal sp guess. Still - we are on for partnership - though there hasn't been even a whisper of Teva interest which would be best for positive sp movement. Can they get the best terms without the leverage of market support for results? Probably - because the data is the data, regardless of how the market interprets. But announcement will come from a lower share price platform that originally hoped for, so we will be effected. On another note, if c-dif ph1 done and results announced in q 4, with partnership announced for trimesta...we still could look really good by years end. But really good now, to me, looks like 5-6, with no $10-14.00 till c-dif ph2 completed next year...
Gave you permission to rib O, if estimates were way off. Still have a few months though!