Replies to post #289764 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[ssc]

It's like Groundhogs Day - option 3), 6-12 more months in this range (ie the dead zone). That's my interpretation of the message of the market.

Wouldn't it be great if Offor just ok'ed a buyout for .50 to $1?

[TOB]

IMO near zero chance of #4

4) walk away.

I think it's a given that ERHC will continue. The only question is whether CEPSA will continue with them.

I can't imagine ERHC not wanting to continue. So far, every block in the region has had several good drilling prospects, with a very high success ratio.

To me it is a Win Win situation for ERHE shareholders either way. But, as a short-term price catalyst, CEPSA continuing is stronger. No doubt.

IMO Kenya gives us a pre-drill rally. The only question is how soon.

[DegenerateGambler]

I just checked my online betting site

1) drill
2) 3D seismic
3) extension to study 2D seismic further
4) walk away.

I prefer 1, but I'm ok with 2. Three would be a bummer. 4 would down right suck.

Krombacher

[DegenerateGambler]

I just checked my online betting site, "BETonANYTHING.com" and there was a line posted for ERHC:

10 to 1 for #1) drill
3 to1 for #2) 3D seismic
8 to 5 for #3) extension to study 2D seismic further
75 to 1 for #4) walk away.

It appears the smart money is favoring the extension!

DeGen

[Julius Erving]

Even with option 4, Kenya block 11A is still not death.

Wishful thinking?

Because I hate wishful thinking... really.

How do I come to this assumption?

Block 12B proves that CEPSA is more conservative than TULLOW and SWALA. Those two companies decided to go directly to drilling, whereas CEPSA was not enough impressed by the same data.

Like I mentioned before: I read that oil exploration is ALSO a subjective profession. It happens regularly that given data is judged diffently by geologists.

If succesful TULLOW is willing to go directly to drilling, without even opting for 3D (the step in between), and CEPSA does not want to drill while they have only 25% of that block, than one can say: there is a realistic chance that TULLOW could very well be interested in the 2D seismic data from block 11A.

CEPSA walking away from 11A does not mean that objectively seen, block 11A is not a candidate for exploration drilling, or even 3D.

Remeber: even the bust JDZ (5 dry wells in a row, deep sea, extremely high costs) is still not totally written of...

So CEPSA leaving is not the end of Kenya, for ERHC, imo.

In this case rights go back to ERHC, BUT now we have FTG and SEISMIC for free, to lure in another company. For that new company, which independently could asses the data way more positive, now has less risk going into investing in this block: hence better (higher) % share for us.

CEPSA's assesment of a given exploration block is NOT carved in stone. We learned that from block 12B.