Replies to post #20304 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[kpisme]

Excellent points and all probable.

They have to have follow-through and not keep shooting themselves in the foot to get my vote for a company that would even compare to Fuel Cell.

[CaptWhizbang]

That's just my point. I believe the retail investor community does have a poor view of Management, but in my view it is misplaced due to the historical events as I have mention in my prior posts.

This quarter no Russian orders were shipped. Russia is 11% of Revenues. That 11% would have changed things on the financials, and the long term European debt problems have hurt CPST from two continents this year, etc. None of those things can be laid at the CPST Officers' door.

Also, IMHO, the Shorters are a significant problem daily, but there is a very visible interest in buying the shares up but since the Longs are the ones being squeezed, the hedge funds can buy on the bid side which won't effect the buy volume. The Long squeeze numbers are relatively shallow but have decreased all last week ending Fri. with a weak -38 Long Squeeze.

The Volume Totals and Short Totals are very significant
.............................Volume.......Short Sales.....Aver.Daily % of Shorts.
Previous Week.....32,488,886.......9,268,288......29.07%
Last Week.........30,905,808.......8,567,536......28.29%
Exceptional weekly numbers; highest for many Months show significant interest in buying while the short numbers are large as well, but still taking a relative small % of daily volume.

Tomorrow is the next 2 week Short Report. That will be informative as they have fallen the last 3 reports.

It's true that the yearly turnover of product backlog is given as approx. 1 year. That doesn't actually mean that specific new sales will take a full year to clear, or that they are added to the very end of the backlog line, as new orders are shuffled in the que to best fit the clients' needs and CPST's production schedule.

If clients step in to delay their orders, then others will be placed in their place, but that depends on when the clients give delays.

Numbers tell the story:

Fiscal Year 2014 Highlights :

Record annual revenue of $133.1 million, up 4% from Fiscal 2013
Record product revenue of $108.8 million, up 6% from Fiscal 2013
Gross margin of $21.7 million, or 16% of revenue, compared to $14.4 million, or 11% of revenue, for Fiscal 2013
Operating loss decreased 30% year-over-year
New product orders of $131.5 million resulting in book-to-bill ratio of 1.2:1
Cash balance of $27.9 million at March 31, 2014


Fourth Quarter 2014 Highlights:

Fourth quarter revenue of $36.4 million, up 3% year-over-year
Quarterly revenue has exceeded prior year 26 of last 27 quarters
Record quarterly product revenue of $30.0 million, up 3% year-over-year
Fourth quarter gross margin of $6.1 million, up 24% year-over-year
Gross margin as a percentage of revenue of 17%, compared to 14% in the fourth quarter Fiscal 2013
New product orders of $41.2 million resulting in book-to-bill ratio of 1.4:1
Record product backlog of $171.6 million at March 31, 2014, up 15% year-over-year
Record Factory Protection Plan backlog of $47.2 million at March 31, 2014, up 35% year-over-year

IMHO, I personally don't see how these reported numbers reflect poorly on the CEO's.

6 Month Chart:

[hillzman]

Agreed. There seems little enthusiasm at this point. But, the bottom is probably in barring some sort of unforeseen bad news, and my WAG would be a climb back into the $1.40-$1.50 range. We were moving up from that range anticipating some good quarters going forward when the PLUG stuff happened and pumped up the whole sector. W/O a good quarter and the elusive "break-even" I don't see much beyond that $1.40-$1.50. But again, just my WAG. I still haven't reentered here, just watching for now. GLTA