Replies to post #19210 on ScripsAmerica Inc. (SCRCQ)

[martin33]

Approx== 4.3- TO 4.4 Million.

[coolerheadsprevail]

July was $4.1M in Main Ave. Pharmacy. Any predictions for August?

Based upon their prior months' growth rates: 94% (APR), 67% (MAY), 69% (JUN), and 51% (JUL), I would not be surprised to see "Approved Orders" come in between $4.5M-$5.0M. This would represent both a dollar-growth and percent-growth LESS than prior month but still healthy. As I've stated several times previously, typical growth trajectories do NOT simply travel the path Main Ave has and suddenly fall off a cliff. The vast majority of the time, the growth rate will taper off in some form of bell curve-like algorithm.

That being said, what concerns me is the amount of backlog. As I posted on previously in my analysis of the Q2 10Q, it appears that as of 6/30/14, Main Ave was backlogged approx 20 days from the time an order is approved for payment by the insurance company to when it actually gets manufactured and shipped (and hence, when Main Ave/SCRC gets to recognize the revenues).

By way of comparison, the backlog as of 3/31/14 was only approx 1.5 days.

I don't know whether patients will cancel orders if the backlog is too long? I don't know if prescribing physicians will begin routing orders to other compounding pharmacies if their patients begin informing them that Main Ave is taking too long to fulfill their Rx? I have no clue.

I also have no idea whether the physical act of compounding requires not only an actual pharmacist but specifically a pharmacist trained in compounding this specific type of topical cream? Or whether it is something where once the pharmacist figures out the "formula", it can be written down and anyone else can do the compounding? The answers to these questions will tell us what options Main Ave has in adding headcount to Main Ave's operations in order to better anage production flowthrough and capacity. IMO, given the dollars involved, even adding on a fully-licensed second pharmacist seems like a good investment if it can enable Main Ave to double its approved orders and be able to manufacture/ship them FASTER -- because after all, the faster it ships, the faster SCRC gets to recognize the revenues.

Will we also get some PR announcing CFP?

I hope not. A reputable company would not do this. They would simply wait for the next filing for market participants to see the financials for themselves.